When we speak of "peak energy," our intent is to call attention to our dependence on dwindling energy supplies (primarily oil and natural gas), the issues (some of them very serious indeed) with supply side responses such as coal, nuclear, and other big energy, and the potentially disastrous consequences of not preparing for an energy-constrained future.

The term peak refers to the instance at which a particular resource reaches its highest level of extraction and thereafter begins into inexorable decline. The term is most commonly used in the context of oil, e.g., "peak oil" or "oil peak," as many experts now believe that global oil extraction is reaching its limits and may peak within this decade (Deffeyes, 2005; Campbell, 2007; Heinberg, 2007; Skrebowski, 2008). Natural gas extraction in North America has already reached its peak and global extraction was predicted for 2019 in the Oil & Gas Journal. The concept of "oil peak" was described first by research geologist M. King Hubbert, in 1949, and later more definitively in 1956.

Many people who have studied our predicament believe there is no panacea or combination of existing and emerging technologies that can enable the citizenry of industrial nations to continue living as lavishly as we do. Furthermore, two of industries favored solutions, coal and nuclear, have seemingly intractable problems (e.g., the CO2 emissions from coal plants cause global warming).

The coming supply shortage will be exacerbated by the rapidly increasing demand of China and to a lesser extent India and the United States. The imminent peaking of global oil production and the fact that natural gas production has already peaked in North America could be the catalyst for positive transformation of industrial society. It could also be a recipe for disaster.

Essential systems that form the foundation of industrial civilization depend on unfettered access to cheap oil and natural gas. As supply begins to drop and is no longer able to meet demand, less work will be done – which means less materialist economic activity. Alternative energies, conservation, and new energy carriers such as hydrogen will undoubtedly play a role in future energy systems, yet collectively they will not be enough to preserve industrial society as we know it.

The possibility for largely positives outcomes demands significant preparation, action, and enduring behavior change. Without unprecedented preparation and cooperation, however, oil and natural gas depletion will precipitate massive disruptions to essential systems such as food, energy, transportation, security and health care, and almost certainly, a major decrease in the earth's carrying capacity.

If mainstream awareness of energy peak occurs during a crisis, we will find ourselves well along the amoral path of endless war for control of dwindling resources, black hydrogen fueled by coal and a reemerging nuclear industry, further restrictions on citizen and human rights, and increasing concentration of wealth through globalization and the money system. During a period of draconian governance in the midst of a permanent energy crisis, all of the gains garnered by environmental and social justice groups in the past 50 years are subject to roll back at best. At worst, recent history is full of examples of what happens when humans with powerful weapons get desperate – they reach for demagogues, Fascism and war.

To find out more about peak oil, try these links:

For long format audio and video interviews (and transcripts) with experts, visit the internet broadcasting site Global Public Media.


	PEAK ENERGY (from Post Carbon Institute) When we speak of "peak energy," our intent is to call attention to our dependence on dwindling energy supplies (primarily oil and natural gas), the issues (some of them very serious indeed) with supply side responses such as coal, nuclear, and other big energy, and the potentially disastrous consequences of not preparing for an energy-constrained future. The term peak refers to the instance at which a particular resource reaches its highest level of extraction and thereafter begins into inexorable decline. The term is most commonly used in the context of oil, e.g., "peak oil" or "oil peak," as many experts now believe that global oil extraction is reaching its limits and may peak within this decade (Deffeyes, 2005; Campbell, 2007; Heinberg, 2007; Skrebowski, 2008). Natural gas extraction in North America has already reached its peak and global extraction was predicted for 2019 in the Oil & Gas Journal. The concept of "oil peak" was described first by research geologist M. King Hubbert, in 1949, and later more definitively in 1956. Many people who have studied our predicament believe there is no panacea or combination of existing and emerging technologies that can enable the citizenry of industrial nations to continue living as lavishly as we do. Furthermore, two of industries favored solutions, coal and nuclear, have seemingly intractable problems (e.g., the CO2 emissions from coal plants cause global warming). The coming supply shortage will be exacerbated by the rapidly increasing demand of China and to a lesser extent India and the United States. The imminent peaking of global oil production and the fact that natural gas production has already peaked in North America could be the catalyst for positive transformation of industrial society. It could also be a recipe for disaster. Essential systems that form the foundation of industrial civilization depend on unfettered access to cheap oil and natural gas. As supply begins to drop and is no longer able to meet demand, less work will be done – which means less materialist economic activity. Alternative energies, conservation, and new energy carriers such as hydrogen will undoubtedly play a role in future energy systems, yet collectively they will not be enough to preserve industrial society as we know it. The possibility for largely positives outcomes demands significant preparation, action, and enduring behavior change. Without unprecedented preparation and cooperation, however, oil and natural gas depletion will precipitate massive disruptions to essential systems such as food, energy, transportation, security and health care, and almost certainly, a major decrease in the earth's carrying capacity. If mainstream awareness of energy peak occurs during a crisis, we will find ourselves well along the amoral path of endless war for control of dwindling resources, black hydrogen fueled by coal and a reemerging nuclear industry, further restrictions on citizen and human rights, and increasing concentration of wealth through globalization and the money system. During a period of draconian governance in the midst of a permanent energy crisis, all of the gains garnered by environmental and social justice groups in the past 50 years are subject to roll back at best. At worst, recent history is full of examples of what happens when humans with powerful weapons get desperate – they reach for demagogues, Fascism and war. To find out more about peak oil, try these links: Energy Bulletin Primer Twilight of the Oil Age The Basics Peak Oil for Beginners Life After the Oil Crash Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas For long format audio and video interviews (and transcripts) with experts, visit the internet broadcasting site Global Public Media. ____________________
	IMPACTS AND SIGNALS (from Post Carbon Institute) The intent of this article is to identify the key signals and likely impacts that can serve as the proverbial canary in the coal mine for peak oil and threats facing us. Some of these canaries are already dropping, some are singing away quite happily at the moment. In any case, there are things to watch for. Note that many of these signals are likely to appear first in poor countries without substantial domestic energy resources. Signals of Oil and Gas Peak Higher oil and natural gas prices Large impacts on price from disruptions in the oil supply chain (such as pipeline bombings, civil unrest, and hurricanes) Shortages resulting in long waits at gas stations, fuel riots, exorbitant black market prices gasoline, curtailment of public transportation (see http://www.fcnp.com/521/peakoil.htm) Blackouts especially in poor countries that use diesel to generate electricity (see http://www.fcnp.com/521/peakoil.htm) Energy companies and others start acknowledging there is a problem (see http://www.willyoujoinus.com, ExxonMobil's admissions) Reduction in food production; milk is particular problem (a la Cuba in early 90s) Transport of goods and people becomes much more expensive Less oil and natural gas based products Economic Signals of Oil and Gas Peak Small businesses that depend on vehicle transport such as delivery services have economic problems Strategic offshoring of energy-intensive businesses such as fertilizer Trucking, aviation, and tourism industries collapse Financial crisis and currency collapse Rationing Curtailed debt repayment, bankruptcies Capital flees to safe havens Barter systems, alternative currencies, and informal economy Relocalization of economies Social Signals of Oil and Gas Peak Rationing Improvisational behavior Migration in and out (regentrification, family reunification) Emergency and security services stressed Predatory behavior and violence Feral cities (warlords, gangs in control, e.g., Somalia) Signals from Oil Shockwave The energy war game Oil Shockwave identified a set of conditions that provide a vivid preview of what we can expect during the Twilight Era of Petroleum: Global oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel Gasoline prices of $5.00 or more per gallon A spike in the consumer price index of more than 12% A protracted recession A decline of over 25% in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index A crisis with China over Taiwan Increased friction with Saudi Arabia over U.S. policy toward Israel Signals of Global Warming and Climate Change Altered migration paths of mammals and fish (e.g., Caribou in North Canada) Melting permafrost and glaciers Rising average temperature Reduced jetstream Earlier and longer hurricane season Higher frequency of adverse weather events Higher insurance payouts due to weather events ____________________

IMPACTS AND SIGNALS